Syria's 13-year-long civil war has resurfaced dramatically in global headlines with a surprise rebel assault on Aleppo, a city of historic and economic significance.
This marks one of the most significant offensives by opposition forces in years and underscores the potential for renewed instability with repercussions beyond Syria's borders.
Aleppo, Syria's second-largest city — a key economic and cultural hub, was last attacked by rebels in 2016. That offensive ended with President Bashar Assad regaining control through a devastating campaign backed by Russian airstrikes.
Since then, Assad has consolidated power over 70% of Syria, aided by Russian, Iranian, and Hezbollah forces. The rebel assault signals a potential shift in the longstanding stalemate.
The timing is particularly fraught as the Middle East grapples with multiple crises, including the conflict in Gaza and rising tensions involving Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Former U.S. Ambassador to Syria, Robert Ford, attributed the rebel resurgence partly to Israeli airstrikes on Syrian and Hezbollah targets, along with a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Why Aleppo matters
Aleppo has long been central to Syria's civil war, which has claimed over half a million lives and displaced millions. Nearly 6.8 million Syrians have fled the country, creating a refugee crisis that has reshaped political landscapes in Europe.
While Assad holds most of the country, around 30% remains under the control of rebel groups and foreign forces. U.S. troops stationed in northeastern Syria focus on preventing an ISIS resurgence, far from Aleppo.
Displaced Lebanese families return home faced with piles of rubble
Both the U.S. and Israel occasionally strike Syrian and Iran-backed militias. Turkey, too, maintains forces in Syria and has ties to the rebel coalition leading the Aleppo assault.
Charles Lister, a Syria expert with the Middle East Institute, suggested that the battle for Aleppo could significantly alter the balance of power if Assad's forces fail to retain control.
He also warned that the situation might encourage ISIS to exploit the chaos. Furthermore, direct confrontations between Russia and Turkey, each pursuing its own goals in Syria, could escalate regional tensions.
Who are the rebels?
The offensive is led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group previously linked to al-Qaida and designated a terrorist organization by the U.S. and U.N. HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani initially aligned with al-Qaida but later broke ties in 2016.
The group has sought to project a more moderate image, emphasizing local governance and interfaith tolerance in its territories.
Golani has faced criticism for harboring extremist elements and engaging in past attacks on Western forces. However, he has also clamped down on radical factions and allowed some religious freedoms, such as permitting Christian Masses in Idlib.
Aleppo’s role in the conflict
Aleppo, a city of immense historical and commercial value, once housed 2.3 million residents. The eastern part of the city fell to rebels in 2012, symbolizing their initial strength. However, a Russian-backed siege in 2016 devastated the city, forcing the rebels to surrender.
Netanyahu supports ceasefire proposal with Hezbollah
Recent Israeli airstrikes in Aleppo targeting Hezbollah and Syrian forces add another layer of complexity, suggesting a broader regional context to the renewed fighting.
Source: With inputs from agencies